PAUL SAS, PHD BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA
00IDENTITY

Genomic Decision Scientist

Decision integrity for reproductive genomic risk.

I design and validate decision aids for probabilistic genetic information, with a focus on polygenic reproductive reports: absolute risk, reference class, uncertainty, within-family limits, and informed choice.

01THE PROBLEM

Accurate reports can still mislead.

Polygenic risk information is probabilistic, uncertain, reference-class-sensitive, and easy to misread. A report can be technically correct in every cell and still manufacture confidence and demand.

The open question is not whether the scores compute. It is whether the people reading them understand what the numbers do and do not say, at the moment they make an irreversible decision.

02THE AUDIT

The Decision Integrity Audit

A pre-registered comprehension study for polygenic reproductive reports. It measures whether readers come away understanding a report's claims, caveats, uncertainty, and actionability, or whether the report quietly converts ambiguity into certainty.

01 Absolute vs relative risk A doubled relative risk on a one percent base rate is two percent. Reports that lead with relative risk manufacture alarm, or demand.
02 Reference class Risk relative to which population, measured how, over what horizon. The denominator is a design choice, and most readers never see it.
03 Ancestry portability Scores trained on one ancestry degrade on others. The attenuation is quantifiable. Reports rarely quantify it.
04 Within-family limits Effects estimated between families shrink within them. Embryo comparisons are within-family by construction.
05 Rank fragility Rankings reorder under retraining, resampling, and measurement error. A fragile rank presented as stable is a comprehension failure.
06 Clinical utility A valid score is not a useful decision. Utility depends on absolute risk differences, available alternatives, and what the chooser values.

DELIVERABLES: a scorecard, comprehension data, and redesign recommendations.

I am looking for academic, clinical, and company design partners. For one design partner, I will scope the protocol on a synthetic or redacted report at no charge.

03PRIOR WORK

Decisions under uncertainty, for decades.

Most of my career applied behavioral decision science to financial decision-making, product design, and user research. Stanford PhD in experimental psychology, trained in the Tversky tradition of judgment under uncertainty.

I am now applying the same toolkit to a more consequential class of decisions: reproductive genomic risk.

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04SCOPE + CONTACT
NON-CLINICAL RESEARCH, DECISION-AID DESIGN, AND COMPREHENSION VALIDATION. NOT GENETIC COUNSELING. NOT MEDICAL ADVICE. NOT TRAIT-SELECTION ADVOCACY.